10.2.3 (or 10.3) waiting :)

thats good news thanks for the info @BenB

BenB wrote: ...Apple has sold AT LEAST 1 million copies of FCPX, at $300 USD, that means Apple has $300 million for an NLE. That's a VERY healthy software development company for just one application. So yes, Apple makes a ton of money off of FCPX.

There are other factors which make the comparison even more pronounced:

- $20/mo for Premiere is a fair direct comparison, but not that many people will get *only* Premiere. That price does not include Audition, Prelude, and SpeedGrade. In essence to get all the video-related tools you either must buy the full $50 per month suite or buy the individual video products for about the same price, minus the remaining suite.

- So with Adobe, you pay $50 per month plus (of course) buy your own hardware. In three years when your computer needs updating you pay for that plus keep paying $50 per month for the software.

- With Apple/FCPX over the long run FCPX is essentially free. In comparison with CC, that $50 per month will buy a new iMac every 3-4 years, inc'l trade-in on the old one. So with Apple you are essentially getting a perpetually free new computer vs what you would pay for CC.

- There is some unspecified multiplier effect for Mac sales for each FCPX sale. Basically a team committing to FCPX will be buying a lot of Macs over time, so Apple's total revenue leverage for FCPX is much more than the software sales itself. Conversely if FCPX was ever discontinued the cost to Apple would be vastly more than the lost software sales. For this reason I cannot see that happening.

- With Adobe if you *ever* quit paying the subscription, you lose access to your projects. You are *never* vested, no matter how many years you pay. Apple is currently continuing to upgrade FCPX for free but if they ever quit doing that and charged, you could at least decline to pay and keep using your old version.

- Starting with CC Adobe eliminated their non-profit discount. Apple also does not provide one but the cost of FCPX is so low it doesn't really matter.

How much has Adobe made?

A lot, every month.

So at $50 per month, you'd have purchased FCPX, Motion, Compressor in 8 months. But you keep paying, cause it's a subscription.

I mean in comparison to the 300million, what would you estimate Adobe Premiere at? Would this amount be an indicator of the comparable value or strength of each colossus?

Yes $300million is a huge hunk of change, it would pay the salaries of developers for a good long while, I wonder on top of the 300m how much was spent on new laptops, imacs, mac pro's, and mac mini's to do just video editing.

I read/heard it could top $1billion over the last 5 years, what you must factor into the Adobe question is how high is the piracy rate?

For folks out of the USA, charging $50 that is $50 not a local exchange rate equivalent, is a huge sum, I would not be surprised if the piracy of Adobe is at least 2 to 1, two pirated copies for every subscription, here in South Africa, draconian exchange control laws prevent many from paying monthly offshore in US $, so are forced into piracy if they want the product.

If Adobe is serious about piracy, clearly not, then they would sell box sets without cloud, Apple does not sell FCPX with a cloud subscription. As I see it, Adobe seems almost a ponzi scheme, at least it acts like one, Larry Jordon felt the wrath of quitting Adobe with a huge exit penalty!!

The fact you loose everything if you miss a payment makes no sense, why would any professional subject their income to such risk is beyond my level of comprehension. If there was no FCPX, I may have considered piracy, but there is way better options, FCPX!!!

MsJustine wrote: ...
The fact you loose everything if you miss a payment makes no sense, why would any professional subject their income to such risk is beyond my level of comprehension...

You don't lose everything, just your ability to edit a project or run the editor. Obviously your rendered files will still be there. If you keep your project files you can always pay $50 for a single month to get access to your projects and make some changes.

For $50 per month you get access to a powerful diverse software suite, which is continually updated. Prior to this the purchase cost was quite high -- say $1,800. So a lot of people actually like the $50 per month plan.

waternyc wrote: I mean in comparison to the 300million, what would you estimate Adobe Premiere at? Would this amount be an indicator of the comparable value or strength of each colossus?

keep in mind: the 50$ package we're talking about gets mostly bought not for Premiere...
Have a look on Adobes site:
creative.adobe.com/en/plans?store_code=d...id=PC1PQQTW&mv=other
The marketing dept. decided Premiere isn't worth to be mentioned front page.

Premiere is bycatch .... for Adobe.
Diff. business model ...

$1200-$1800 previously for these suits, most of that went into packaging. All those boxes and DVDs had to be designed, was produced, and having been part of that process way back when, it was VERY expensive. The first private meetings Apple gave after FCPX was released, at NAB, they gave a breakdown of packaging, promotional, and development costs. Lack of packaging saves tons of money. So Adobe's suite, being delivered online now, with not packaging, is more in line with FCPX pricing. Still, you end up paying a ton more with an Adobe subscription. That's simply the numbers.

Anyway, on top of all this, I can't begin to explain the numbers of Avid MC editors and post shops I spoke and met with at NAB a few weeks ago, who had, or were in process of switching to FCPX. The numbers of pro users is growing, fast.

So, what I'd like to see in the next release, getting back to the OP, is something fun. Something that makes the job of editing even more fun than it already is with FCPX. What would that be? I'm trusting Apple to come up with something really cool.

BTW, that 1 million and 1.2 million licenses sold quote from the FCPX virtual users group, those numbers are from NAB 2015, a whole year ago. So that number would be quite a bit more today.

All I am saying is there is a planet full of people that cannot afford the exchange rate or the $50 per month. I cannot afford the $50, and I cannot get permission to pay, I am not a business, and have the income to afford the "right" class of credit card, that goes for many here in Africa, piracy is very high, and people are honest about it, it is done almost purely down to the cost.

Everything here is imported, through resellers, at huge mark ups, so there are no cheap anything when it comes to video equipment, be it cameras, software, computers.

When I bought my Sony HDV A1-P camera, I had to ensure I was fully up to date with my taxes, I had to pay for a very expensive importers licence, I had to pay import costs through DHL, I had to pay customs at DHL, which almost doubled the cost of the camera, the worst part I could only insure it for the exchange rate at which I bought it, so when it was liberated by thieves, I was paid out the cost of just the local currency value, about 2/3rds of the actual cost.

If I was on a subscription, using a high cost laptop, and the laptop stolen, I would only be paid out for the laptop, and the software, as it is not a box set, but a rental, it is not covered, so I would have to keep paying every month $50 and no income to cover the costs until I save up to replace the laptop!!!

That is a huge problem I think Adobe has just never thought about, and on a personal note, I can understand why people pirate, it is for stupid decisions that force people to pirate, if they could buy a download, sans cloud for $300, I am sure they would, I would, just to be more in tune with other editing systems, for $50 per month, I remain without!!

MsJustine wrote: Larry Jordon felt the wrath of quitting Adobe with a huge exit penalty!!

Did I miss something? I thought he got out of the tutorial game still covering CC extensively. When did this quit/ wrath happen?

It was on the FCP.co front page about a month ago, a huge rant about the penalties he had to pay, over $300 I think he paid to end a yearly subscription early!! Adobe spanked him red raw, which led me to start to question is Adobe a ponzi scheme...

Larry sold his branding to Thalo.com and is now producing tutorial material through them. He's not quit, just moved into a more comfortable, economically productive situation.

Rant is here.
larryjordan.com/blog/the-darker-side-of-subscriptions/

Yes, if you quit an "Annual Subscription" before your 12 months are up, Adobe screws you over really good.

BenB wrote: ...I can't begin to explain the numbers of Avid MC editors and post shops I spoke and met with at NAB a few weeks ago, who had, or were in process of switching to FCPX. The numbers of pro users is growing, fast...

Some people fear Apple will discontinue FCPX, which I suppose is valid though I don't see that happening. If Apple moved that direction, they could theoretically be talked out of it by a coalition of large stake holders. I'm not saying that is likely -- just a remote possibility.

By contrast Avid has been balanced on a financial knife-edge for a long time. They were temporarily de-listed from Nasdaq in 2014 for financial irregularities and are laying off people now: www.betaboston.com/news/2016/02/29/avid-...gy-slims-down-again/

If Avid goes under you can't talk a company out of this -- they are gone. If this happens maybe they would be purchased by some group of Hollywood studios due to the large investment in that product and workflow. What that would mean for other Avid users, I don't know.

People just don't think about this. At a recent gathering of editors several people asked "what if Apple ever drops FCPX?" Nobody asked what if Avid goes out of business. IMO there is a much greater chance of the latter than the former.

Found the page on his blog...
larryjordan.com/blog/the-darker-side-of-subscriptions/

Ok, first. Adobe doesn't "spank" anyone. Sometimes I don't understand the skew of talk on this professional forum. Are we 12 years old?

Second, Adobe has an outline of how they refund and what you have to pay if you're so far into a subscription year. The $49/mo is a DISCOUNTED rate based off of a promise to pay 12 payments. If you want month-to-month, it's $79. That's not advertised so you have to do some digging.

To me, it doesn't make much sense. They should have a single "all" plan of $49.99 without any annual commitment. No penalties. However, my guess is whatever marketing genius that saved Adobe by pushing this monthly plan into place had to do so by telling key stakeholders that "monthly is actually $79 but if people pay for 12 months, we give them a discounted rate." I'm sure someone there didn't want $49 to be the norm, which has left all these weird termination fees in place.

By the way, if you call Adobe, they are pretty reasonable.

MsJustine wrote: It was on the FCP.co front page about a month ago, a huge rant about the penalties he had to pay, over $300 I think he paid to end a yearly subscription early!! Adobe spanked him red raw, which led me to start to question is Adobe a ponzi scheme...

While I am in no way a defender of Adobe, their policies or management decisions ... Jordan's 'spanking' should not have come as any surprise. The penalty for ending his subscription early was clearly and precisely spelled out in the subscription agreement he accepted when he placed the order ... in fact there are many similar agreements (at least in the U.S.) for cable/internet service, wireless cell phone service, motor vehicle and power equipment leasing, etc.

Secondly, it is not Adobe's or Apple's responsibility to reduce the price of their products because a particular host nation has decided to tax all imports to death. The fault of that needless price increase for you, the end user, is not the fault of the folks in San Jose or Cupertino. The cause of your pain can be found much closer to home.

Lastly, and quite honestly, the only price point that would stem piracy by any significant number would be free ... even then there would be those who would still circumvent the system just to prove they could.

That fear of Apple pulling the plug is not without some justification, updates are just not quick enough, now there is talk about WWDC, more than 90 days post NAB, that does not sound good!!

Then there is the threat to cancel media events if someone says something nice about FCPX after seeing it at NAB, when the very same company publishes almost weekly new beta versions for everything in the stable bar pages, numbers, keynote, logic x, motion 5, final cut pro x, compressor, the 7 apps we use!!!

I just don't understand why the beta's for ios, watchos, tvos, macos, and nothing for apps??

Thanks to Justine and Ben for the link to the Larry Jordan blog.

Two things: when the summary is "improvements could be made," it's not the most incendiary rant in the world. And second, Larry's as good as his word. My subscription to his training rolled over because I forgot to cancel it, and one email got me the refund, no questions asked (and it was my fault).

Actually the way it is done in the USA is backwards frankly, we may be a 3rd world country, at the arse end of Africa, but at least we have a great consumer protection act that prevents the very thing that happened to Larry.

If you take a subscription, be it a satellite tv service, a mobile phone contract, a gym membership, car tracking, and you decide to cancel, you pay a reasonable penalty, nowhere near as steep as paying off the 10 months on a 12 month subscription, we had that very same system as in present day USA, then the law changed, I suffered, having to pay for 2 years a vehicle tracking subscription when my car was written off, prior to the introduction of the CPA, consumer protection act. Now if it was to happen, I would pay no more than 3 months instead of 24 months.

Here is the thing, let me explain it like this, Adobe, like a gym, has to have something to sell, or something to offer the gym bunny, before you open, so you spend plenty to make the software, or buy the gym equipment, that is a loss, now you start selling subscriptions to recoup the costs, this is simple business 101.

Some of the income from sales of subscription goes to settling the debt of development, some to invest in new gear, the point is, there is no cost to loosing a client, what I mean is the gym for example did not have to buy a bicycle just for you, it was bought already, and if you leave you dont take the bike with you, it is reused for someone else.

The same with Adobe, when you leave, cancel the subscription, your account space in terms of storage is just reused for someone else. Adobe only will run into a problem is suddenly one day there is a huge spike in uptake, then new storage has to be developed, but that it seems is not going to happen.

There is not much good about this country, but we do have 1 great law, something it seems is way better than what is in the USA, almost pity consumers in the USA!!